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December 4, 2025 By Orr

Commodities Challenges-An Opinion

EFFICIENCY

Efficiency? For any process, what is the optimal point where more efficiency becomes too costly. Costly? Yes, resource shortages or inability to adjust to industrial realities and societal expectations. In many traditional processes, the Pareto Principle, 80-20 rule, wherein 80 percent of results come from 20 percent effort. In this case, the last twenty percent of effort may cost more and may not gain much more efficiency.

POLICY

Policy has gone from green energy to energy transition. Some industries have already invested massively in green energy-solar farms and wind farms. Have we gained much in energy supply from these investments? Depends. As a contingency or supplemental supply, it depends on the energy use and industry application. Now, we are galloping to the AI (artificial intelligence) model and data centers to power AI energy demand. Is AI leading us to better efficiency in our business and industrial processes and energy saving? What are the tradeoffs in gaining a robotic workforce and AI intelligence to breakthrough humanities complex problems?

LEARNING

Have we learned from our ancestors who withstood many natural disasters. In the past ten years, we have been exposed to so much more than our ancestors-even manufactured disasters. Chemicals, pandemics, polluted air and water…. yes, but also our minds have been bombarded with the use of iPhones, 5-G, GPS, social media, and rampant social media delivered to us via satellites. At one time, we had just a few satellites in space, now it is getting more congested like some of our freeways in big cities. Is this to gain us more efficiency? Speed of access, real-time data—we seem to be clamoring for it.

CONSUMER DEMAND

Supply and demand. As long as we demand these services for streaming media, instant weather updates, and immerse ourselves further into the digital realm—we may forget that we are humans. Eggs do come from chickens. Vegetables from farms. At least for now—hold on genetic engineering and lab-grown foods are on the way. Our global supply chains grew rapidly such that we can get fruits from all corners of the globe when they are not in season in our local. If we have the money, we can buy anytime of year and get fresh food. Heck, we can even have it flown in for the same day flavor. Our instant appetite has been refined from years of fast food and delivery services to our door. We do not even have to bother going to a local farm or grocery store. If we pay with a credit card or digitally, it will be delivered right to our door.

AFFORDABILITY

Can we afford to keep going at this pace? Pace, yes, our speed of change is also increasing forcing us to adapt more quickly. What are we trading for these changes? Do we all want to live in virtual realities. What costs is it to our natural world? We have traded wood for coal and coal for oil and natural gas and maybe now nuclear. How quickly can we adapt to these changes as individuals and countries? We now are staring at our resources as we continue to build out a digital reality. The United States is strong in wood, coal and natural gas but does not have the needed rare earth minerals to assemble our electric cars, chips, and data centers. Moreover, we do not have the required energy to power these data centers required by Google, Meta, Amazon, and others. Do we go to outer space to help fulfill some of these resource requirements?

EXTREME WEATHER

By now, everyone is familiar with the term “extreme weather events.” We have lived through these in the United States—with deluges of rain causing flooding, freaky storms and hurricanes in areas never threatened before. Swarm earthquakes and volcanic activity at all time highs. In previous discussions on this blog, the concept of the Solar Cycles has been presented. Our sun is in a maximum cycle exposing our earth’s atmosphere to geomagnetic storms. Last month, in Alabama, we even saw the Northern Lights. This is not normal. So, we are also having extreme space events that are and will impact our digital communications and airplane traffic.

TRADEOFFS

What is easier to maintain-our appetite for more instant or to step back, pause, and adjust our way of living? Think about why we are being asked to modify our lifestyle. Did things not work before? Is being more efficient the most important thing in our quality of life? Do we really need the latest and greatest model phone and car? What costs are being passed down to the average citizen as we see the consequences of tradeoffs? Something to think about as we approach the holiday season.

As a practicing professional geologist, it is my privilege and duty to share my knowledge of the earth and earth processes. Over my career, it has led me to oil and gas exploration using geophysical tools (like seismic, gravity/ magnetics, and remote sensing), remediation of chemical releases to the soils and groundwater, mineral and aggregate exploration for quarry mining conservation easements, and assisting rural water utilities permit for groundwater wells.

Filed Under: Energy and Environment Tagged With: Commodities, Tradeoffs, Weather

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